SIDC Ursigram

3-day Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity: Latest Issue and Archive

INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2022 Jan 18 11:05:47

There are 7 visible active regions on the solar disk. NOAA AR 2929 has
evolved into beta-gamma configuration. Nevertheless, the flaring activity
was concentrated on NOAA AR 2930, the strongest was a C2.8 flare peaking at
14:15 UT on 17 January. More C-class flares can be expected in the next 24
hours, M-class flares are possible.

The flare described above was related to a narrow northward-directed CME,
which is not expected to affect the Earth. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24
hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux increased slightly above the 1000 pfu alert threshold
and is expected to remain close to the threshold during the next 24 hours.
The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to increase
in the next 24 hours.
The Earth is still under the influence of a High Speed Stream (HSS) with
solar wind speeds close 550 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 4
nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately in the
negative sector (directed towards the Sun) over the last 24 hours. Around
21:00 UT on 17 January the magnetic field increased up to 8 nT with several
hours of negative Bz (peaking at -7 nT), these could be mild signatures of
the passage of the CME from 14 January (this occurred during a period
containing data gaps and with data source changes between ACE and DISCOVR).
The solar wind speed is expected to decrease in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels in Belgium (K_Bel = 4) in the
past 24 hours, and minor storm conditions were reached at planetary levels
(Kp = 5). Mostly unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours, if
the CMEs from 15-16 January arrive (expected 19-20 January) then up to
minor storm conditions can be expected.

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SIDC Fast Alert Products

2022 Jan 15 1134 UTC
A moderate geomagnetic storm (NOAA Kp index 6) was detected for the synoptic [more]

2022 Jan 12 1041 UTC
A halo or partial-halo CME was detected with the following characteristics: [more]

2022 Jan 06 1235 UTC
END OF ALL QUIET ALERT ...................... The SIDC [more]

2021 Oct 28 1604 UTC
A class X1.0 solar X-ray flare occurred on 2021/10/28 with peak time 15:34UT [more]

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