SIDC URSIGRAM 30419
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Apr 2003, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Apr 2003 until 21 Apr 2003)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Apr 2003  10CM FLUX: 111 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Apr 2003  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Apr 2003  10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 015
COMMENT: Solar activity looks set to increase with the appearance of Catania
sunspot group 71 (NOAA 0337) at the eastern limb. This region produced a short
duration M1.1 flare peaking at 19:59UT yesterday. Geomagnetic activity levels
have decreased a bit, but still remain unsettled (K-indices of 4 were recorded
yesterday in Wingst). This is in response to the still high value of the solar
wind speed, which currently stands near 600km/s.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Apr 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 049
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 108
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 028
AK WINGST           : 022
ESTIMATED AP        : 022

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
18  1950 1958 2002 S12E91 M1.1       41                       71  0337 EIT derived location
END
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