SIDC URSIGRAM 30112 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Jan 2003, 1400UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 12 Jan 2003 until 14 Jan 2003) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 195 / AP: 016 PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 200 / AP: 012 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 200 / AP: 007 COMMENT: The observations from Wingst indicates geomagnetic perturbations with isolated active conditions due to the recurrent coronal hole. The solar wind velocity remains between 400 and 450 km/sec, but the Bz component of the field is now strictly positive. Quiet to unsettled conditions are now expected. SOLAR INDICES FOR 11 Jan 2003 SUNSPOT INDEX : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 189 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 017 AK WINGST : 012 ESTIMATED AP : 011 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT