SIDC URSIGRAM 30114 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Jan 2003, 1300UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 14 Jan 2003 until 16 Jan 2003) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 012 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 175 / AP: 010 COMMENT: The geomagnetic field became unsettled to active for short intervals over the last few hours, as the interplanetary magnetic field switched to a Southward orientation. Now, the orientation is again slightly Northward (positive Bz) and quiet to unsettled conditions should prevail over the next few days.. The activity on the Sun remains low, but new active regions are now crossing the East limb and might raise the overall activity level in the next few days. An M flare still remains possible. SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Jan 2003 SUNSPOT INDEX : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 172 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : /// AK WINGST : 008 ESTIMATED AP : 008 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT