SIDC URSIGRAM 30529
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 May 2003, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 May 2003 until 31 May 2003)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Major geomagnetic storm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 May 2003  10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 025
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 May 2003  10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 048
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 May 2003  10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 029
COMMENT: The >10MeV proton flux has increased to just above the event threshold
level since the beginning of the UT day. This is undoubtedly related to the
flaring activity from Catania sunspot group 18 (NOAA 0365), which produced
another X-flare this morning. A stronger proton storm may follow if flaring
activity from this region continues. In the mean time, the solar wind speed is
gradually decreasing and geomagnetic conditions have gone down from minor storm
level to active, but we expect later today the arrival of the first of a series
of CMEs, which may again lead to geomagnetic storm conditions.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 28 May 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 130
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 039
AK WINGST           : 030
ESTIMATED AP        : 034

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
27  2256 2307 2313 S07W17 X3.6 2B  1600 III/2                 18  0365                     
28  0017 0027 0039 S07W20 X3.6     1600 II/3, III/3, IV/3     18  0365 EIT derived location
29  0051 0105 0112 S07W38 X1.1 2B   730 II/3, III/3, IV/1     18  0365                     
29  0209 0218 0224 S37E03 M1.5 1F       III/3, IV/1           13  0368                     
END
BT