SIDC URSIGRAM 30116 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Jan 2003, 1250UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Jan 2003 until 18 Jan 2003) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 146 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 016 COMMENT: The current unsettled geomagnetic conditions should extend over the next 48h. On day 3, the geomagnetic activity might increase to active levels due to the possible influence of a low-latitude coronal hole located just South of the solar equator. The solar activity remains low. Only C flares and a possible isolated M flare are expected. SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Jan 2003 SUNSPOT INDEX : 139 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 150 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : /// AK WINGST : 007 ESTIMATED AP : 007 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT