SIDC URSIGRAM 30618
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Jun 2003, 1330UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Jun 2003 until 20 Jun 2003)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jun 2003  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 065
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jun 2003  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 031
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jun 2003  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 029
COMMENT: A shock was recorded by ACE today, June 18, at 04:45UTC. The
interplanetary magnetic field turned negative until 8:45UTC, inducing a
geomagnetic storm between 05:00-09:30UTC (Kp: 5 to 7). The GOES >10MeV proton
flux rose around 8:45UTC but without reaching event threshold. This disturbance
was predicted and is associated with the X flare of June 15 in active region
Catania 37 (NOAA 386).Active to minor geomagnetic storm conditions are expected
over the next days under the influence of a low-latitude coronal hole. Active
region Catania 37 (NOAA 386) produced a new M flare (M6.8). It remains
magnetically complex and is thus expected to remain active over the next few
days.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Jun 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 095
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 122
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 051
AK WINGST           : 038
ESTIMATED AP        : 042

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
17  2227 2255 2312        M6.8     2100 I/2, III/3, IV/1      37  0386 CME                 
END
BT