SIDC URSIGRAM 30117
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Jan 2003, 1315UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 Jan 2003 until 19 Jan 2003)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jan 2003  10CM FLUX: 134 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jan 2003  10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2003  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 021
COMMENT: Starting at the end of day 2 (Jan. 18), the Earth magnetosphere might
fall under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream associated with an
extended coronal hole, now still largely in the South-East quadrant of the solar
disc. The associated disturbances are expected to increase further in the course
of next week. Moreover, a filament eruption took place near the central meridian
on Jan 17, around 01:00UT. EIT and LASCO images suggest that a faint semi-halo
CME was triggered by this event. The associated disturbance may thus produce an
active or minor geomagnetic storm episode on Jan. 20. Overall, active
geomagnetic conditions should prevail from Jan 19 or 20 onwards. No significant
activity was produced by any active region on the Sun, except for a complex
C-flare in active region Cat. 19( NOAA 10259) on Jan 16, 11:12UT. The solar
activity is expected to remain low.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 16 Jan 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 129
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 145
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 007
AK WINGST           : 006
ESTIMATED AP        : 005

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT