SIDC URSIGRAM 30119
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jan 2003, 1120UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Jan 2003 until 21 Jan 2003)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2003  10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2003  10CM FLUX: 129 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2003  10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 018
COMMENT: Starting on Jan 18 20:00UT, the solar wind speed started to
progressively increase from 350 km/s to about 600km/s at this time, while the
density started to decrease. This marks the expected entry of the Earth in a high
speed solar wind stream associated with the low-latitude coronal hole in the
Southern solar hemisphere. The Bz component is now slightly negative, which may
increase the geomagnetic activity in the next few hours. An additional
disturbance, associated with the Jan 17 central-meridian filament eruption, may
still arrive at Earth in the next 24 hours. Regarding the Sun itself, not even a
single C flare was produced by any of the active regions now on the disk. No
change is expected over the next 3 days: the activity should remain very low.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Jan 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 137
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 021
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 015

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
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