SIDC URSIGRAM 30125 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 Jan 2003, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 25 Jan 2003 until 27 Jan 2003) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 034 PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 134 / AP: 021 PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 013 COMMENT: The Earth is still situated inside the fast flow from a large coronal hole. This morning Kp index reached 5 as the north - south interplanetary magnetic field component is predominantly negative since the second half of Jan. 24. A weak and slow partial halo CME (associated with an M1.9 flare) has been registered by SOHO/LASCO on Jan. 24 around 06:30 UT. It may arrive to the Earth on Jan. 28 and may produce some geomagnetic disturbance. SOLAR INDICES FOR 24 Jan 2003 SUNSPOT INDEX : 121 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 130 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 031 AK WINGST : 022 ESTIMATED AP : 021 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT