SIDC URSIGRAM 30916
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Sep 2003, 1200UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Sep 2003 until 18 Sep 2003)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Sep 2003  10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 038
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Sep 2003  10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 040
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Sep 2003  10CM FLUX: 094 / AP: 031
COMMENT: A large density enhancement in the solar wind was recorded by both ACE
and CELIAS/SOHO yesterday evening (Sept 15, 18h20 till midnight), followed by a
steady increase of the solar wind speed (currently at 440 km/s). We identify
these features as the first signs of the influence of the coronal hole now
passing central meridian on the Sun. Since, in addition, the interplanetary
magnetic field is strongly negative (currently at -10 nT), we predict stormy
(Kp>=5) geomagnetic conditions for the coming 24 hours.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Sep 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 097
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010
AK WINGST           : 007
ESTIMATED AP        : 006

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT