SIDC URSIGRAM 30126 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 Jan 2003, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 26 Jan 2003 until 28 Jan 2003) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 024 PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 134 / AP: 018 COMMENT: The Earth is still situated inside the fast flow from a large coronal hole. Disturbed geomagnetic conditions are probable as the north - south interplanetary magnetic field component is predominantly negative since the second half of Jan. 24. A weak and slow partial halo CME (associated with an M1.9 flare) has been registered by SOHO/LASCO on Jan. 24 around 06:30 UT. It will probably arrive to the Earth on Jan. 28 and may produce some geomagnetic disturbance. SOLAR INDICES FOR 25 Jan 2003 SUNSPOT INDEX : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 129 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 034 AK WINGST : 025 ESTIMATED AP : 027 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT