SIDC URSIGRAM 31006
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Oct 2003, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 06 Oct 2003 until 08 Oct 2003)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Oct 2003  10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Oct 2003  10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Oct 2003  10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 021
COMMENT: Solar x-ray flaring activity is rather low at the moment. The only
sunspot group of any significance is Catania 52 (NOAA 0471), which produced an
M-flare on Oct 03. Yesterday, Oct 04, the activity level stayed in the C-range.
Today, no noticeable event occurred so far. The magnetic structure of this
sunspot group is simplifying, yielding less chance on significant flaring
activity. The solar wind speed seems to have reached its lowest point (380
km/s). The wind speed is rising because a recurrent transequatorial coronal hole
visible in EIT284 images is now located on a geo-effective position. The
particle density measured by ACE is enhanced (10 particles/cm3). But since the
Interplanetary Magnetic Field carried by the solar wind is positive, we do not
expect strong geomagnetic disturbances in the very near future.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 5 Oct 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 110
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 014
AK WINGST           : 008
ESTIMATED AP        : 007

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT