SIDC URSIGRAM 31016
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Oct 2003, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Oct 2003 until 18 Oct 2003)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Major geomagnetic storm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Oct 2003  10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 027
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Oct 2003  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 040
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Oct 2003  10CM FLUX: 104 / AP: 060
COMMENT: The solar wind speed has now decreased to the value of 600 km/s. The
k-indexes now measured by Izmiran are lower than the indexes measured yesterday
Oct 15, between 12.00UT and midnight (5-6). NOAA, Boulder indicates also that
the magnetic storm of yesterday has decreased in strength. This however is a
silence before new strong geomagnetic disturbances. As we look at an EIT/284A
image, we can identify one large coronal hole with 2 imbedded weak loop systems.
These two ‘clouds’ are weak in the sense that they show no flaring activity and
they do not harbor any sunspots.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Oct 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 096
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 056
AK WINGST           : 039
ESTIMATED AP        : 041

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT