SIDC URSIGRAM 30103 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Jan 2003, 1400UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 03 Jan 2003 until 05 Jan 2003) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 011 PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jan 2003 10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 012 COMMENT: The quiet solar wind conditions which we have enjoyed for the last few days have passed. Since this morning (Jan 3), the solar wind speed and density have sharply increased. There will be only limited effect on the geomagnetic activity since the z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field remains predominantly pointed to the North. SOLAR INDICES FOR 2 Jan 2003 SUNSPOT INDEX : 043 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 118 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 013 AK WINGST : 008 ESTIMATED AP : 007 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT