SIDC URSIGRAM 31115
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Nov 2003, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Nov 2003 until 17 Nov 2003)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Nov 2003  10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 037
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Nov 2003  10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 061
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Nov 2003  10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 054
COMMENT: Signatures of a possible shock arrival are seen in ACE-data: the solar
wind speed jumped from 600 to 750 km/s, the temperature increased suddenly from
2 105 to 8 105 K. The transversal component of the interplanetary magnetic field
jumped to a higher positive value, while the horizontal component turned
negative (-10nT). This event can trigger a magnetic storm. In the coming hours,
the K index can possible reach values as high as 5 and 6: minor to major storm
conditions are expected. The Earth is still under the influence of an elevated
coronal hole wind stream.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Nov 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 032
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 099
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : 031
ESTIMATED AP        : 037

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT