SIDC URSIGRAM 31205
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Dec 2003, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Dec 2003 until 07 Dec 2003)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Dec 2003  10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Dec 2003  10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Dec 2003  10CM FLUX: 108 / AP: 026
COMMENT: Tonight, Nov 5, between 01.00 and 03.00 UT, the solar wind speed
increased from 350 to 450 km/s, the temperature jumped from 20.000 to 100.000 K,
the density increased. This is probably the glancing blow of the CME associated
with the prominence eruption on Dec 2. The horizontal component of the
interplanetary magnetic field carried in the solar wind made the most pronounced
jump of all parameters: it suddenly became negative with a value of -20 nT. This
resulted in active to minor storm conditions. NOAA reported estimated K_p
indices of 2565-; IPS measured a local K-index of 5 above the Australian region;
Izmiran measured local K-indices of 43444-;Tromso:4433-,4443-,3443-. We expect
active to minor storm conditions for the rest of the UTday. No clear effect of
the small coronal hole which is now situated between 45 and 60 degrees West,
could be seen in the solar wind speed. But, another large coronal hole is coming
up. This one has already proved to be geo-effective in previous solar cycles. A
first part of the hole (lying in the northern hemisphere) is now at the central
meridian.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 4 Dec 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 116
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 014
AK WINGST           : 008
ESTIMATED AP        : 007

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT