SIDC URSIGRAM 31215
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Dec 2003, 1400UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Dec 2003 until 17 Dec 2003)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Dec 2003  10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2003  10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 024
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Dec 2003  10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 017
COMMENT: The solar wind speed is still elevated at more than 700 km/s due to
the large coronal hole. Since this hole is now rotating over the western solar
limb, we expect the solar wind speed to start decreasing later in the UT day.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain at quiet to active level for the
next 48 hours. Solar activity has slightly increased in the past 24 hours. The
first C-flare in more than a week was recorded yesterday evening from Catania
sunspot group 15 (NOAA 0522). More small C-class flares are likely. Just before
10UT today, the southern section of a prominence just left of the central
meridian erupted. The resulting CME may have been earth-directed, but LASCO
images to confirm this are not yet available. The northern section of this
prominence is also expected to erupt soon.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Dec 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 060
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 092
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 041
AK WINGST           : 032
ESTIMATED AP        : 033

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT