SIDC URSIGRAM 30204 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Feb 2003, 1215UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 04 Feb 2003 until 06 Feb 2003) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Feb 2003 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 038 PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Feb 2003 10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 024 PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Feb 2003 10CM FLUX: 143 / AP: 017 COMMENT: Ther solar wind speed increased rapidly from 500 to 600 kmn/sec between 1 and 3 UT, so that the geomagnetic field is expected to remain at unsettled to active levels with possible peaks at minor storm due to a coronal hole in favorable position. SOLAR INDICES FOR 3 Feb 2003 SUNSPOT INDEX : 042 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 133 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 039 AK WINGST : /// ESTIMATED AP : 024 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT