SIDC URSIGRAM 40101
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Jan 2004, 1200UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 01 Jan 2004 until 03 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 104 / AP: 025
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 099 / AP: 017
COMMENT: The solar wind speed remains high at 500-550km/s due to an equatorial
coronal hole in a geo-effective position. The interplanetary geomagnetic field
is mostly mildly southwards. We expect mainly active geomagnetic conditions, but
with occasional periods of minor geomagnetic storm level.
Solar activity remains at moderate level. An M1.0 flare was observed yesterday
from Catania sunspot group 20 (NOAA 0528), which has in the mean time vanished
behind the west limb. Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA 0534) is growing. It has
generated C-class flare activity so far and is thought likely to continue so.
SXI images clearly show that Catania sunspot group 30, which has just appeared
at the east limb, is also very active. It is also expected to be the source for
C-class flares for the next 24 hours.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 31 Dec 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 025
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 106
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 011
AK WINGST           : 028
ESTIMATED AP        : 022

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
31  1821 1824 1826 N10W89 M1.0          III/3                 20  0528 SXI derived location
END
BT