SIDC URSIGRAM 40110
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 10 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 10 Jan 2004 until 12 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 018
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 018
COMMENT: Several B and C flares erupted from the two sunspot groups Catania 30
and 33 (NOAA 0536,0537). We expect to see major flares (M or possibly X) from
these two regions ini the near future. The geomagnetic activity is globally
still at minor storm levels (Kp=5), however, the Bz is now positive and the
solar wind speed is only about 560 km/s now. Therefore we expect quiet levels
for the rest of the UT day. Izmiran already gives K=3. The ACE data is hard do
interpret at the moment. The 'bumps' which occur in the solar wind speed,
density and temperature could be due to the passage of a weak CME. The M3.2
flare of 9/1 at 01:14 UT produced by Catania 33 (NOAA 0537) was probably
accompanied by a south-west directed CME. We do not expect any geomagnetic
influence from this CME, however it could give some disturbances in the ACE data
on 11/1 in the afternoon UT.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 9 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 118
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 038
AK WINGST           : 025
ESTIMATED AP        : 026

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT