SIDC URSIGRAM 40112 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 12 Jan 2004, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 12 Jan 2004 until 14 Jan 2004) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jan 2004 10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 006 PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jan 2004 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jan 2004 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 007 COMMENT: The solar wind speed has declined to the value of 500 km/s. There is a geomagnetic silence at the moment. NOAA giving K_p indices of 22-, Izmiran measuring K indices of 2211-. In EIT 195, sunspot group 30 (NOAA 0536) looks brighter than sunspot group 33 (NOAA 0537). The x-flare intensity reached only the lower C-level yesterday and the beginning of today. In the north-east, a large prominence is present. SOLAR INDICES FOR 10 Jan 2004 SUNSPOT INDEX : 041 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 119 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 029 AK WINGST : 026 ESTIMATED AP : 026 SOLAR INDICES FOR 11 Jan 2004 SUNSPOT INDEX : 030 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 119 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 034 AK WINGST : 021 ESTIMATED AP : 022 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT