SIDC URSIGRAM 40508 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 May 2004, 1240UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 08 May 2004 until 10 May 2004) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 08 May 2004 10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 012 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 May 2004 10CM FLUX: 088 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 May 2004 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 006 COMMENT: The influence of the low-latitude coronal hole is expected to end later today, May 8. The solar wind speed has already declined from 500 to 460km/s over the last 12 hours. The geomagnetic field is expected to be essentially quiet over the next few days. The new active region Catania#24 (NOAA606) has now appeared at the East limb. It consists of a large isolated sunspot, and may produce a few C flares, with a low probability for an isolated M flare. SOLAR INDICES FOR 7 May 2004 SUNSPOT INDEX : 024 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 085 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 026 AK WINGST : /// ESTIMATED AP : 020 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT