SIDC URSIGRAM 40113
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 13 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 13 Jan 2004 until 15 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 020
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 012
COMMENT: The estimated K_p indices given by NOAA are 33- as a continuation of
the quiet conditions yesterday. Izmiran measured yesterday evening K indices of
4, as the B_z component of the interplanetary magnetic field was slightly
negative (-5nT). A part of the prominence in NE part of the solar disk erupted
yesterday. This morning, around 09:00UT a possible arrival of the shockfront can
be detected in the ACE and SOHO/CELIAS data. The solar wind speed is now 600
km/s. Active geomagnetic conditions are possible for the rest of the UT day. For
Jan 14 and Jan 15, we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions. Flaring activity is
mostly the same as yesterday, only the lower C-level is reached. Some active
regions are seen on the east-limb in EIT images. Flaring activity might increase.
>From January 16, geomagnetic conditions will become more active as a coronal
hole will be on a geoeffective position.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 12 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 029
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 118
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 024
AK WINGST           : 014
ESTIMATED AP        : 013

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT