SIDC URSIGRAM 40114
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 14 Jan 2004 until 16 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 019
COMMENT: Solar activity was quiet again, although C- and M-flares are still
possible. Yesterday a new big region appeared on the East limb: Catania 35 (NOAA
0540). Yesterday, geomagnetic conditions reached active levels, due to an
increase in the solar wind speed. Today geomagnetic activity is accepted to
remain quiet. The partial halo CME observed by LASCO on 11/1, first visible in
C2 at 20:30UT, has bene determined backwards. A second partial halo CME directed
to the North West, was probably related to the prominence eruption which took
place early on 12/1.
The leading edge of a new coronal hole has passed the central meridian, which
means we expect possible geomagnetic influence starting from 16/1.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 041
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 118
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 036
AK WINGST           : 024
ESTIMATED AP        : 026

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT