SIDC URSIGRAM 40115
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Jan 2004 until 17 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 121 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 121 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 024
COMMENT: Solar wind speed fluctuates between 450 and 500 km/s. The in the solar
wind imbedded magnetic field has a positive B_z component. As a consequence, we
enjoy quiet geomagnetic conditions. This can change from tomorrow Jan 16 on
since we will be under the influence of a high speed coronal wind stream.
Sunspot group 35 (NOAA 0540) with a beta configuration has produced an isolated
C3.2 flare. A part from this flare, activity is rather low.




SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 056
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 121
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 023
AK WINGST           : 014
ESTIMATED AP        : 013

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT