SIDC URSIGRAM 40116
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 16 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 16 Jan 2004 until 18 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 035
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 037
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 037
COMMENT: The solar wind speed is gradually increasing and has now reached the
value of 600 km/s. A half circular coronal hole is the cause of this increase.
The north-south component of the IMF has been fluctuating between +10nT and
-10nT last night leading to the estimated NOAA K_p indices of 23224443 for
yesterday, Jan 15. For today, indices of 4435- are already given. Active
conditions and isolated minor storm periods are possible the next few days.
Flaring activity is still low. It hardly reached the C-level after the C3.2
flare of yesterday.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 15 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 064
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 119
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 030
AK WINGST           : 014
ESTIMATED AP        : 017

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT