SIDC URSIGRAM 40118
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 18 Jan 2004 until 20 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 123 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 039
COMMENT: Yesterday evening, a radio type II outburst was measured associated
with the M5.0 flare from sunspot group 35 (NOAA 0540). This is the signature of
a CME. Since the sunspot group is near the center of the solar disk, this CME
will be, a halo CME. The CME will arrive probably on January 20. LASCO images
about the CME are not yet available, which makes it difficult to predict the
strength of the geoeffectiveness at arrival. If the CME is energetic a minor to
major storm is possible. The same group produced another M-flare around
midnight. The solar wind speed is slowly decreasing and has now the value of 550
km/s according to SOHO/CELIAS. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet, with one
period with K_p index of 4 as calculated by NOAA, since the B_z component of the
IMF is predominantly positive.


SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 104
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 123
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 029
AK WINGST           : 024
ESTIMATED AP        : 022

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
17  1735 1750 1759 S15E19 M5.0      580                       35  0540 II/2, III/2         
END
BT