SIDC URSIGRAM 40119
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Jan 2004 until 21 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 121 / AP: 024
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 123 / AP: 032
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 126 / AP: 005
COMMENT: Solar activity was mostly on C level past UT-day. Seceral C-flares and
one M1.0 flare were produced by sunspot group Catania 35 (NOAA 0540). We expect
more flaring activity from this region.
It seems that the earth is leaving the influence from the high wind stream
coronal hole. However, elevated solar wind speeds (and Kp indices) are still
possible. For tomorrow 20/1 we expect the arrival of two CMEs, which escaped on
Jan 17 and Jan 18 from active region Catania 35. The latter one has the higher
speed and could catch up with the former one. If this duo-CME becomes
geoeffective the influence could therefore be much stronger.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 096
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 120
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 036
AK WINGST           : 025
ESTIMATED AP        : 024

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
18  0007 0017 0021 S14E17 M1.4                                35  0540 EIT derived loc     
19  0525 0532 0535 S17E05 M1.0 SF       V/2                   35  0540                     
END
BT