:Issued: 2004 Jul 17 1235 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40717
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 17 Jul 2004, 1210UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 17 Jul 2004 until 19 Jul 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Jul 2004  10CM FLUX: 152 / AP: 025
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 Jul 2004  10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jul 2004  10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 017
COMMENT: NOAA AR 649 keeps on flaring at the X-class level. The lastest X-flare
was an X1.1 flare that peaked at 07h56 (begin 07h56, end 081h5). The lower
energy proton channels of ACE are starting to react to the flaring activity in
NOAA AR 649, which indicates that major flares coming from NOAA AR 649 might in
the coming days generate a proton event. At the east limb, a new big, complex
sunspot group has appeared NOAA AR 652 bringing potential for more X-class
firework. At the same time, a shock was recorded yesterday in the solar wind
around 21h00. The following geomagnetic storm reached Kp=5 values but seems now
to decays.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 16 Jul 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 136
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 147
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 018
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 012

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
ubmit forecast
16 1622 1628 1631 S11E30 M1.2 SF   0           78 0649                     
END
BT
 
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