SIDC URSIGRAM 40102
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Jan 2004, 1245UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 02 Jan 2004 until 04 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 014
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 012
COMMENT: The solar wind speed has now decreased to 500km/s, with a moderately
negative Bz. Simultaneously, the geomagnetic activity has dropped to unsettled
levels and is expected to remain largely so, except for possible short active
periods. Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, but a new big sunspot,
numbered Catania#30 (NOAA0536), has the potential for multiple C-flares, with a
possibility of an M-flare.


SOLAR INDICES FOR 1 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 059
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 116
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 039
AK WINGST           : 026
ESTIMATED AP        : 030

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT