SIDC URSIGRAM 40120
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Jan 2004 until 22 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 145 / AP: 013
COMMENT: Sunspot group NOAA 0540 showed much activity past UT-day, it produced
two M flares and two big C flares including a long duration flare peaking at
00:45 on 20/1. Lasco imagery shows a CME which evolved into a halo CME. It is
first visible in C2 at 00:06 UT on 20/1. It could be related to the long
duration C5.5 flare, which started at 23:08 UT on 19/1. We believe this CME will
become geoeffective, but further details are needed to give an estimate for the
time of arrival.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 137
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 135
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 029
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 019

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
19  1230 1240 1246 S16W00 M1.0       59 III/2                 35  0540                     
20  0730 0743 0747 S14W13 M6.1                                35  0540                     
END
BT