:Issued: 2004 Jul 27 1240 UTC :Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40727 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 27 Jul 2004, 1215UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 27 Jul 2004 until 29 Jul 2004) SOLAR FLARES : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7) SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV) PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Jul 2004 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 159 PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jul 2004 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jul 2004 10CM FLUX: 113 / AP: 016 COMMENT: The ICME that follows the shock at 22:28 UT on July 26 posesses strong southward interplanetary magnetic field, and its influence is not finished yet. Thus we expect the geomagnetic activity to stay at the major storm level. SOLAR INDICES FOR 26 Jul 2004 SUNSPOT INDEX : 089 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 128 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 054 AK WINGST : /// ESTIMATED AP : 107 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE 26 2346 0000 0011 N10W54 M1.2 1F 0 82 0652 26 0536 0552 0601 N02W41 M1.3 SF 61 82 0652 26 1723 1730 1737 N03W45 M1.1 2N 38 82 0652 END BT #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.oma.be. Please do not reply directly # # to this message, but send comments and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. # # If you are unable to use that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------#