SIDC URSIGRAM 40121
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 21 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 21 Jan 2004 until 23 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Major geomagnetic storm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 012
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 038
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 038
COMMENT: A large filament eruption was seen in EIT movies on 21/1. The
prominence was situated South-East from the central meridian. At the time of
eruption a long duration C1.2 flare was recorded by GOES12. The prominence
started to erupt at 03:20 UT and reached its maximum at 05:11 UT. Post-flare
loops ware clearly visible. In LASCO images, there is evidence of a halo CME
related to this prominence eruption. It is first visible in C2 at 04:54 UT and
is earth-directed. Another prominence, North-West of the central meridian is
also ready to erupt in the near future.
Yesterday 20/1, Izmiran reported K=6 from 15 to 18 UT. At that time the solar
wind speed was about 560 km/s. Due to the negative Bz (-5 nT) the earth locally
reached major storm conditions. Later on the day geomagnetic activity turned to
quiet levels again. The solar wind speed decayed to 480 km/s. For the next days
minor storm conditions are expected, with the arrival of latest halo CMEs. The
halo CME first visible in C2 at 00:06 UT on 19/1 is expected to arrive on 22/1.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 20 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 110
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 129
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 034
AK WINGST           : 025
ESTIMATED AP        : 024

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT