SIDC URSIGRAM 40122
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Jan 2004 until 24 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 132 / AP: 047
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 134 / AP: 039
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 011
COMMENT: Major geomagnetic storm in progress. NOAA reached Kp=6. A giant shock
was recorded by ACE today 22/1 at 01:00 UT. This is probably the arrival of the
CME related to the C8.2 flare on 19/1. The CME itself was first visible on 20/1
at 00:06 UT in C2. Its initial speed along the principal angle was estimated in
the range 708-819 km/s. There was a large jump in the solar wind speed,
temperature, Bz and density. The solar wind speed jumped from 500 km/s to 650
km/s. Because of dominant positive orientation of the IMF, the geomagnetic
disturbances on Earth were restricted to minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp=5 from
00 to 06 UT, Izmiran K=5 from 00 to 03 UT, K=4 form 03 to 06 UT). At about 10 UT
the IMF turned southwards (-20 nT), causing a major geomagnetic storm. For
tomorrow , we expect the arrival of the CME which is first visible in C2 on 21/1
at 04:54 UT. This is the CME which is probably related to the (first) large
filament eruption on 21/1. Its estimated speed is about 700 km/s. The second
prominence at the West of the solar limb erupted at about 22:00 UT on 21/1. The
eruption is clearly visible in EIT 195 movie. LASCO imagery shows evidence of a
related CME, first visible in C2 at 22:30 UT. The CME is probably to much
directed to the north-west to become geoeffective. A third light-bulb CME
erupting on the east side, first visible in LASCO C2 at 12:54 UT on 21/1, has
been decided backwards.




SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 123
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 130
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 024
AK WINGST           : 017
ESTIMATED AP        : 016

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT