SIDC URSIGRAM 40123
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 23 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 23 Jan 2004 until 25 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 035
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 112 / AP: 007
COMMENT: The solar activity was reduced to background B-level. However C-flares
remain possible for the next days from Catania 35 or 43 (resp. NOAA 0540, 0542).
The geomagnetic storm of yesterday which reached severe levels (NOAA Kp=7 from
9 to 15 UT). We expect the storm to end soon. It is unclear weather the halo CME
related to the filament eruption has arrived yet. ACE date shows some
perturbations which could be attributed to this CME. Therefore for today we
expect active conditions. For tomorrow we don't expect great influence from the
second filament eruption, so everything should remain rather quiet.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 22 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 122
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 080
AK WINGST           : 057
ESTIMATED AP        : 061

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT