SIDC URSIGRAM 40125
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 25 Jan 2004 until 27 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 101 / AP: 040
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 093 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 022
COMMENT: No significant solar activity for the past UT-day. We expect a quiet
sun for the next days. At the beginning of this UT day (25/1) NOAA reached Kp=5.
This could be due to the arrival of the CME related to the second prominence
eruption. Another cause could be a very small coronal hole which was situated
near the central meridian on 22/1. The solar wind speed is now oscillating
around 480 km/s. For the rest of the UT-day, we expect active conditions, for
tomorrow everything should remain quiet. On 27/1 we expect an elevated solar
wind speed as a consequense of the coronal hole covering the central meridian.




SOLAR INDICES FOR 24 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 056
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 108
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 025
AK WINGST           : 021
ESTIMATED AP        : 021

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT