SIDC URSIGRAM 40128 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Jan 2004, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 28 Jan 2004 until 30 Jan 2004) SOLAR FLARES : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jan 2004 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 024 PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jan 2004 10CM FLUX: 106 / AP: 004 PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jan 2004 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 001 COMMENT: We are still under the influence of the small equatorial coronal hole, NOAA measures Kp=4. At the start of this UT day NOAA reached Kp=5 (Izmiran reached K=6). Bz switched between positive and negative values but was above -10 nT. The solar wind speed is still rising, its current speed is about 550 km/s. We expect the geomagnetic activity to return to quiet levels. Solar activity is and will remain very low. The X-ray background is below B level now and is still decreasing. SOLAR INDICES FOR 27 Jan 2004 SUNSPOT INDEX : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 094 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 023 AK WINGST : 019 ESTIMATED AP : 018 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT