:Issued: 2004 Oct 15 1228 UTC :Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 41015 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Oct 2004, 1222UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 15 Oct 2004 until 17 Oct 2004) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 093 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 095 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 17 Oct 2004 10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 009 COMMENT: Flaring activity is low, the only active region which has the possibility for C-flares is sunspot group 39 (NOAA 0682). Solar wind speed is declining, we are definitely leaving the influence sphere of the coronal hole. We are experiencing quiet geomagnetic conditions. SOLAR INDICES FOR 14 Oct 2004 SUNSPOT INDEX : 032 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 091 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 038 AK WINGST : /// ESTIMATED AP : 028 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.oma.be. Please do not reply directly # # to this message, but send comments and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. # # If you are unable to use that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------#