SIDC URSIGRAM 40129
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 29 Jan 2004 until 31 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 097 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 099 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 025
COMMENT: Solar activity has continued being very low. The X-ray background is
still firmly in the A-level (i.e. below 0.1 microwatts per square meter), but is
now increasing due to the apparition on the east side of the solar disk of a
small active region (Catania sunspot group 48). Solar activity is expected to
remain very low.
The solar wind speed continues its decrease. It is now at 450km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field has been negative at -5nT during the past 4 hours,
leading to a short spell of active geomagnetic conditions, while the geomagnetic
field was otherwise at quiet levels. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for
the next 48 hours, but thereafter the influence of a large transequatiorial
coronal hole will begin to be felt, generating active to minor storm conditions.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 000
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 089
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 044
AK WINGST           : 032
ESTIMATED AP        : 032

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT