SIDC URSIGRAM 40103
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Jan 2004, 1155UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 03 Jan 2004 until 05 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 119 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 021
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 029
COMMENT: The solar wind picked up speed again today, at 03/01 03:00UT. It is
now at 620km/s. Around 06:30 UT, the interplanetary magnetic field turned
southward (Bz=-10nT). In response to this, the geomagnetic field became active
(Kp=4 at Izmiran and Kiruna), with minor storm levels as recorded by the GOES
satellite. Under the influence of this high-speed solar wind stream , active
geomagnetic conditions are expected for at least the next 3 days, with
occasional minor storm events. The solar activity is still very low (background
X ray flux now approching B2). Still, C flares and a possible M flare are likely
to occur in the two largest active regions now on the solar disc.


SOLAR INDICES FOR 2 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 072
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 117
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 025
AK WINGST           : 019
ESTIMATED AP        : 017

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT