:Issued: 2004 Nov 04 1229 UTC :Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 41104 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Nov 2004, 1208UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 04 Nov 2004 until 06 Nov 2004) SOLAR FLARES : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 013 PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 134 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Nov 2004 10CM FLUX: 131 / AP: 026 COMMENT: The solar activity is dominated by the NOAA AR 0696 (beta-gamma magnetic configuration), which is growing. It produced three M-flares yesterday. The NOAA AR 0693 (Catania number 57) has developped into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, although it haven't yet generated any significant flaring activity (only weak C-flares). Taking into account the rapid growth and M-flaring of NOAA AR 0696 and favorable magnetic configuration of NOAA AR 0693, we expect an X-flare to occur. Several full or partial halo CMEs have been produced by the NOAA AR 0696 recently, and more are expected to be produced as this active region is growing. As it approaches the central meridian, there is a good chance that any CME coming from this region in the next 3 - 4 days will arrive to the Earth. So, we expect the geomagnetic activity to reach at least the minor storm level soon. There is a chance for a proton event as NOAA AR 0691 (Catania sunspot group 52) is at the West limb now. SOLAR INDICES FOR 3 Nov 2004 SUNSPOT INDEX : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 136 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 023 AK WINGST : /// ESTIMATED AP : 014 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE 03 0323 0335 0357 N08E45 M1.6 1N 1100 IV/2,V/3,III/3,II/3,CTM/2 0696 03 1535 1547 1555 N11E40 M5.0 SN 1700 II/3,IV/2 0696 03 1803 1826 1835 N09E32 M1.0 SF 380 III/1 0696 END BT #------------------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://sidc.oma.be. Please do not reply directly # # to this message, but send comments and suggestions to 'sidctech@oma.be'. # # If you are unable to use that address, use 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # #------------------------------------------------------------------------------#