:Issued: 2004 Nov 14 1227 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 41114
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Nov 2004, 1214UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 14 Nov 2004 until 16 Nov 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Nov 2004  10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Nov 2004  10CM FLUX: 099 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Nov 2004  10CM FLUX: 102 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Two active regions are growing: 64 (NOAA699) and 65 (NOAA700). The
latter is now listed as beta-gamma magnetic configuration, and in fact looks
like a double region, side by side. Although the activity was very low until now,
we predict C flares with the possibility of an isolated M flare, if the
abovementionned regions are continuing their growth. Based on EIT images, a
returning active region is about to appear at the NE limb.
The geomagnetic activity has been essentially quiet to unsettled. Although the
solar wind speed remains elevated at 480km/s, the IMF is currently weak and
oriented northwards. The geomagnetic field is thus expected to remain quiet over
the coming 3-day period.


SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Nov 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 096
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 014
AK WINGST           : ///
ESTIMATED AP        : 010

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM RADIO BURST TYPES     Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT
 
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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                          #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                                 #
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