SIDC URSIGRAM 40201
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Feb 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 01 Feb 2004 until 03 Feb 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 Feb 2004  10CM FLUX: 096 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Feb 2004  10CM FLUX: 099 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Feb 2004  10CM FLUX: 103 / AP: 021
COMMENT: The solar wind speed remains high at 600km/s, but the north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field is small and varies around the
zero point. Therefore, the geomagnetic field has so far suffered very little
effects from the influence of the large coronal hole currently in geo-effective
position. Quiet to active conditions are expected for the next 48 hours.
Solar activity will remain at the current level, with occasional C-class
flares. The sunspot group responsible for most of this activity is still Catania
51 (NOAA 0549), which has again produced a few C-class flares over the past 24
hours. However, the group is neither large nor complex and is not thought
capable of an M-class flare in the near future.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 31 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 065
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 094
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 011
AK WINGST           : 009
ESTIMATED AP        : 008

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT