SIDC URSIGRAM 40202 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Feb 2004, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 02 Feb 2004 until 04 Feb 2004) SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Feb 2004 10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 021 PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Feb 2004 10CM FLUX: 105 / AP: 024 PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Feb 2004 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 018 COMMENT: The fast solar wind flow from the equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive. Thus the geomagnetic conditions will probably be at the disturbed to the minor storm level in the coming days. SOLAR INDICES FOR 1 Feb 2004 SUNSPOT INDEX : 078 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 097 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 017 AK WINGST : 012 ESTIMATED AP : 011 NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE NONE END BT