SIDC URSIGRAM 40104
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Jan 2004, 1245UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 04 Jan 2004 until 06 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 024
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 115 / AP: 032
COMMENT: The solar wind speed remains elevated (560km/s), and Bz is oscillating
but mostly southward. Therefore, the geomagnetic field is currently unsettled to
active. The Earth will remain under the influence of a large trans-equatorial
coronal hole probably for the next 5 to 7days, with associated active conditions
and occasional minor or even moderate geomagnetic storms (Kp=5-6). Some growth
is still observed in the main active regions on the Sun. However, only an
isolated C flare was produced today by Catania#30 (NOAA0536). Other C flares are
expected, with still the possibility of an M flare.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 3 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 083
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 116
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 038
AK WINGST           : 025
ESTIMATED AP        : 027

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT