SIDC URSIGRAM 40105
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 05 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 05 Jan 2004 until 07 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 016
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 116 / AP: 032
COMMENT: The geomagnetic storm has ended, although the solar wind speed is
still enhanced (currently 600-620 km/s). Tomorrow we expect at most K=3. This
morning at 03:45 UT (peaking time) an M6.9 flare occurred at sunspot group
Catania 30 (NOAA 0536). Since it was a long duration flare a CME could be
related to this, but there is no evidence yet for that. We expect further
flaring from this region.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 4 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 095
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 119
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : ///
AK WINGST           : 023
ESTIMATED AP        : 023

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
5   0250 0345 0520 S10E36 M6.9                                30  0536 EIT derived loc     
END
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