SIDC URSIGRAM 40106
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 06 Jan 2004 until 08 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 124 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 128 / AP: 012
COMMENT: Old Catania sunspot group 14 produced an M flare, today at 06:29 UT
(peaking time). The geomagnetic activity has turned to quiet levels, the solar
wind speed seems to have passed its maximum, being 600 km/s at present.
Tomorrow, we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions, unless the long duration M
flare of 5/1 was accompanied by a CME which could become geoeffective. Therefore
we do not exclude active conditions for tomorrow 7/1.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 5 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 106
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 123
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 051
AK WINGST           : 034
ESTIMATED AP        : 032

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
6   0610 0629 0650 N04E81 M5.8                                         old catania 14      
END
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