SIDC URSIGRAM 40107
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 07 Jan 2004 until 09 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 037
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Two large M flares erupted from Sunspot group catania 33 (NOAA 0537).
We expect further flaring activity for this region, X-flares are possible.
Sunspot group Catania 30 (NOAA 0536) has developed a beta-gamma-delta
configuration and stays candidate for flaring activity. This morning GOES
already recorded a C3 flare in catania 30.
A weak shock was detected in the ACE data at 19:27 UT on Jan 6. From this time
on the IMF turned predominantly southward, inducing geomagnetic minor storm
conditions (Kp=5) from 21:00 UT untill 24:00 UT, Jan 6. This was probably the
arrival of the CME related to the long duration M flare early on Jan 5. The
solar wind speed rose from 600 km/s to 650 km/s and later to 700 km/s. The
current speed is 600 km/s. This UT day started under quiet geomagnetic
conditions, turning into active and then minor storm conditions. The IMF was
mostly pointing southward (-10 nT), today. We expect the influence from the high
speed wind stream coronal hole to continue for the rest of the day and tomorrow,
inducing active to minor storm conditions.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 6 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 077
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 117
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 044
AK WINGST           : 023
ESTIMATED AP        : 025

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
7   0343 0404 0421 N02E76 M4.5          V/2,II/1                  0537                     
7   1016 1027 1033 N06E71 M8.3                                    0537 SXI derived loc     
END
BT