SIDC URSIGRAM 40108
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Jan 2004, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 08 Jan 2004 until 10 Jan 2004)
SOLAR FLARES  : Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 026
PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Jan 2004  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 003
COMMENT: Solar activity was restricted to one M1.3 X-ray flare from catania 33
(NOAA 0537). We expect more flaring activity the next days, from this group. Two
previous flares were accompanied by a (partial) halo CME: the M5.8 flare on 6/1
and the M8.3 flare on 7/1 in Cat 33.
The geomagnetic influence from the large coronal hole extended untill Jan 7,
18:00 UT, a Kp=5 was reached from 06:00 to 18:00 UT. At present we have quiet
geomagnetic conditions. The solar wind speed started decreasing at about 18:00
UT reaching a current speed of 600 km/s. At the time of writing this report, the
IMF tends to turn southwards again. We thus expect active to minor storm
conditions with the arrival of the two CMEs mentioned above. A halo CME
(probably related to the M5.8) which was first visible in Lasco C2 at 08:53 on
6/1, could become geoeffective by this evening. Secondly tomorrow afternoon
(9/1) we expect the arrival of a partial halo CME which was probably related to
the M8.3 flare on Jan 7, peaking at 10:27. The CME was first visible in LASCO C2
at 10:06 UT on Jan 7.



SOLAR INDICES FOR 7 Jan 2004
SUNSPOT INDEX       : 072
10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 119
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 041
AK WINGST           : 029
ESTIMATED AP        : 035

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
8   0453 0507 0521 N01E64 M1.3 1N    73 III/1                 33  0537                     
END
BT